Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. It was also well understood by practitioners at CIG that aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem researchers, managers, and stakeholders needed a similar, but more comprehensive, data resource to support long-term planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies at the landscape scale. Hydrologic climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin and coastal drainages. Figure 10 shows a map of Q100 ratios (future Q100 to historical Q100) for 297 river locations and a scatterplot of the Q100 ratio as a function of winter temperature regime in each basin. Lows in the lower 50s. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate that's different from 50 years ago. Similarly, three different downscaling approaches were used in the study, each with its own advantages and limitations in the context of different natural resources management applications (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Oregon Water Resources Department. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. The CIG (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/; see the Table of Acronyms in the Appendix) is an interdisciplinary research group at the UW focused on climate-related research in five major sectors: atmospheric sciences, hydrology and water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. Agencies at the state and local levels were similarly engaged, two notable examples in the PNW being King County, Washington (Casola et al., Citation2005), and the WDOE, which manages (among many other water-related issues) the state's water resources and water quality permitting programs. Detailed information about the study can be found under Documentation, while model results can be found under Data. This study represents one of the first attempts to dynamically couple a sophisticated, physically based hydrologic model with a detailed crop model to estimate the integrated impacts on water supply and crop viability at a range of spatial scales. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the evening. Among its most useful features is the predominantly physical basis of the model, which largely avoids concerns about parameter stationarity in a changing climate. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. To produce the bias-adjusted flows, a bias correction procedure using quantile mapping techniques is applied (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Snover et al., Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). Thus, by selecting 10 GCM scenarios with good historical performance that also spanned the range of impacts, we effectively reduced the computational and storage requirements of the CBCCSP by approximately a factor of two. Climate change scenarios for water planning studies, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. The approach used a refined version of the methods established by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), which created a hybrid historical meteorological dataset based on three primary data resources: a) monthly HCN data in the United States and the similar AHCCD datasets in Canada, b) daily data from the cooperative station network in the United States (co-op stations) and similar data from Environment Canada, and c) a monthly climatology (19712000) for precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperatures at 30 arc-second resolution produced using the PRISM (Daly, Gibson, Taylor, Johnson, & Pasteris, Citation2002; Daly, Neilson, & Phillips, Citation1994; DiLuzio, Johnson, Daly, Eischeid, & Arnold, Citation2008). Climatic Change 113:499-524. These emerging needs ultimately led to the CBCCSP, and similar efforts in BC led by PCIC (Werner, Schnorbus, Shrestha, & Eckstrand, Citation2013). Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. For the CD and HD downscaling methods, which construct a 91-year time series for both historical and future time periods, three future time periods were selected: 2020s (20102039), 2040s (20302059), and 2080s (20702099). Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Differences in the impacts in the US and Canadian portions of the basin are striking, confirming results reported in two previous studies (Hamlet, Citation2003; Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b). The WDOE was also directed to incorporate climate change explicitly in these comprehensive assessment efforts. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. In the remainder of this paper, we present an overview of the development of the CBCCSP, a description of the primary methods used to produce the study databases, an overview of the products and information the study databases provide, and some high-visibility examples of the use of these products and services in regional planning. National Weather Service The study also used the ColSim reservoir operations model (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b) to estimate water deliveries to the Columbia Basin Project (the primary irrigation project supplied by water from Grand Coulee Dam) under future climate scenarios using streamflows generated by the integrated VIC/CropSyst model. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. 8) and warmer and drier summers (which increase PET) (Fig. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. Tonight Mostly cloudy. Des accroissements gnraliss simuls de la rhumidification du sol en automne et en hiver dans les secteurs o l'accumulation de neige en hiver est importante (sous le climat actuel) appuient les hypothses de risque accru de glissement de terrain et de transport de sdiments durant l'hiver dans le futur. Les plus fortes augmentations dans les crues sont dans les bassins de pluie et neige mles dont les tempratures actuelles au milieu de l'hiver sont quelques degrs du point de conglation. Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP. Right panel: Same data shown as a scatter plot of the average ratio of Q100 for the 2040s A1B scenarios to Q100 for the historical period versus historical basin-average mid-winter (DJF) temperature in each case. 'High Uncertainty' is indicated when Mahalanobis Distance is >1. Also, at about this time, successful lawsuits challenging NEPA studies because they had not addressed climate change effects began to appear (Hamlet, Citation2011). Thanks to Sean Fleming (Environment Canada) for spearheading this contribution to Atmosphere-Ocean. These lands are those without any sort of status that provides government protection, such as an indigenous territory, or that have not . (2010). In most basins with substantial snowpack, elevated soil moisture in winter accompanies warming in the simulations resulting from more infiltration from rain in the fall and winter months (Fig. Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. A number of high-visibility studies have made use of the CBCCSP database to date, a few of which are summarized below. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. 10 Left panel: Changes in Q100 for 297 streamflow locations expressed as a ratio of Q100 for the future period to Q100 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. The sweeping statements in the 2007 IPCC AR4 (Solomon et al., Citation2007) regarding the scientific consensus on observed warming (unequivocal) and the direct human role in the alteration of the climate system (90% confidence) made it clear to many management professionals that the waiting game for climate change planning was nearing an end. Thanks to Shrad Shukla, at the UW for 1/16 degree VIC model calibration over the Yakima basin. Fig. The same basic effects are seen in the SWE2PR maps, where snowmelt remains dominant in the northern tip of the CRB even at the end of the twenty-first century, whereas in the US portions of the domain there are widespread transformations of mixed-rain-and-snow river basins to rain-dominant basins and snowmelt-dominant basins to mixed-rain-and-snow basins. %%EOF These basins experience dramatic losses of snowpack and substantial changes in seasonal flow timing (Fig. Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin One of the major climate change impacts already being seen in the Columbia Basin has been the decreases in winter snowpack, the increase in winter precipitation events, and the resulting shifts in flow regime in the Columbia River and its tributaries. The smallest of these sub-basins is about 500km2 (approximately fifteen 1/16 degree VIC cells), and the largest encompasses most of the CRB (approximately 620,000km2 or about 18,800 VIC cells). For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. However, some areas west of the Cascade Range and in the northern Rockies show increasing AET. Gridded databases providing full GIS coverage of important hydrometeorological variables in support of a wide range of research applications, including ecosystem research.

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